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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd