A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
