🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Made $436K on Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, sparking debate about whether someone profited from confidential information of American actions. Sudden Shift in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the leader would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the period preceding Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that Maduro had been seized. One account, which joined the platform last month and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that users assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the odds had increased to 11% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the first hours of Saturday, indicating a rapid movement in market sentiment just before the social media post was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said a financial reform advocate. A small number of other individuals also profited significant sums from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges Politicians are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation presented on the start of the week seeks to ban government employees from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Industry Context Prediction markets have grown significantly in the past few years, with users able to predict everything from sports to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Insider trading is a crime in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting space. A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."